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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: RocketMan who wrote (16977)4/29/2000 6:08:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
govt GDP figures are usually revised in the direction of recent changes
govt economists are really shitty
so they are late in obtaining accuracy that captures recent directional changes
if economy is heating up, revisions are upward
if economy is slowing down, revisions are downward
been that way for years

like the Fed, the govt errs on overshoots consistently
my money is on the economy slowing after Y2K phenomenon
the big risk to stock market and economy is Fed tightening while the economy slows on its own

Housing is already in a big stall

look eventually for GDP to be revised downward
we will see
you might be right
/ Jim
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