TB,
1. There are extreme shortages in nearly every optical component category. However, LU, like every other optical component supplier, is adding capacity as fast as they can. LU opto-electronics actually can add capacity a little faster, because it has the most automated process in the world. An example: LU and JDSU produce a similar dollar value of components, but LU opto has 1700 employees and JDSU more than 5000. AFIK NT does not buy from LU, although LU would sell to them if they chose. NT has its own component business, which is almost entirely captive. It also buys significant volumes from Corning and JDSU. BTW, I suspect parts shortages will ease by year end, as there is alot of capacity coming.
2. Cisco is selling the Cerent box in big volumes to the CLEC market. The Cerent product is a new category, and isn't directly analogous to either LU or NT's core optical products. More than anything else, it competes with Tellabs' Titan cross-connect product, but Cerent has not been as successful with the larger carriers as it is in the small DataCLECS. I know Lucent is readying a similar box, and I suspect Nortel is too. There are also several start-ups touting "Cerent killer" boxes, e.g. Cyras. I believe LU and NT will make the more established CLECs and ILECs their targets, offering Cerent-like functionality with added network management features and NEBS compliance. |
