Yo Ex-
I think they're basically right, from their point of view. There will be an expansion of chip demand AND production for the next decade at least.
However, I see the under/over capacity situation as an added issue in spite of this demand curve! Designs will shrink die, more lines and fabs will come on line as a consequence of the current buying spree; and the industry will overshoot demand.
At that point, semi equips see a sizable dropoff in bookings, likely even in shippings. I think that can happen as early as late 2002, or extend into 2004; sorry, but my crystal ball has a major crack and can't pin the window down to less than about 6 quarters wide from here.
Still, chip production can increase through that window, as tools ordered in 2000-2003 begin to catch their full stride, and fabs ramp up yields and cram more die on each wafer. It's a classsic cycle, really, and the last three all saw this effect (although the last doldrums was aggravated by the Asian financial crisis.)
Indeed, demand for IC's has grown steadily throughout the past decade, so what's to slow it down in the next? <grin> It's not just about demand, of course; it's about capacity as well.
To misquote a certain comedian, "That's my opinion, I could be wrong."
Mitch |
