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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: DOUG H who wrote (17012)	4/30/2000 12:02:00 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) of 35685

I think the proper comparison curve would be the speed of AG printing press - it's obeyed Moore's law recently. A little extra was air dropped in on anticipation of the reaction to the CPI numbers... Do you really think the size of NT code validates the NASDAQ? I think it's a subtle slam of MSFT, but I could be off base here. I just don't see a person putting that in a graph with a straight face. Well, maybe a clown. But a damn funny one. Do you think PC sales will continue to grow as they have? If they do, that's a graph of asystole. Or are mediocre earnings growth of DELL, Compaq, etc, just a passing thing? Please ignore CPQ's recent lack of revenue growth, or was it business related earnings? I can't remember. I just remember falling out of my chair with laughter when it was ramped. That leaves you with fiber. In a few years this technology will be an agent of margin erosion (what disk drive makers have gone through already and what PC makers are going through now). The price of bandwidth is deflating at a rate of 10% a year. This will accelerate and competition will be fierce. Please ignore. You are no doubt savvy enough to pick the gorillas of the group which may temporarily be shielded from intense competition by a thick ring of discontinuous innovation, but is this sustainable? Is their growth even sustainable until the key patents dissolve? Better yet, are you willing to invest as if the next 5 years are known? Or are valuations now reasonable enough to buy CSCO, JDSU, etc. without anything more than just a prediction of 1 or 2 years of growth? Persuade me either that you know the future or that no future needs to be known to buy something with so much of the future already accounted for. Or does the chart look nice enough that I should buy the dip?

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