Dick,
Holdr Statistics/Comparisons:
Tonite I did an analysis on the popular tech/biotech Holdrs, have come to some conclusions and welcome all comments. As you know, unless there were mergers, there are 20 underlying stocks in each Holdr.
1. BDH - Broadband
There are 3 (15%) stocks on RS Sell signals
There are at least 8 leading Lg Cap stocks (LU, NT, MOT, QCOM, JDSU, BRCM, GLW, PMCS)
Sector Breakdown: 1 Computer, 5 SemiConductor, 2 Electronics, 12 Telephone
From High to Low, the BDH was down 39%
From the Low to 4/28/00, the BDH was up 26%
2. IAH - Internet Architecture
8 (40%) stocks are on RS Sell signals
8 leading Lg Cap stocks (CSCO, IBM, HWP, SUNW, EMC, DELL, CPQ, AAPL)
18 Computer, 1 Electronics, 1 Telephone
Down 37%
Up 19%
3. IIH - Internet Infrastructure
14 (70%) stocks are on RS Sell signals
1 leading Lg Cap stock (BVSN)
1 Computer, 5, Software, 14 Internet
Down 184%
Up 50%
4. BHH - B2B
16 (80%) stocks are on RS Sell signals
0 leading Lg Cap stocks (unless you count ICGE, ARBA, VERT, CKFR & SILK as leaders)
2 Computer, 1 Finance, 16 Internet, 1 Unknown
Down 273%
Up 43%
5. HHH - Internets (Options are probably traded on the HHH)
11 (55% stocks are on RS Sell signals
4 leading Lg Cap stocks (AOL, YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, CMGI)
1 Wall St, 1 Computer, 18 Internet
Down 181%
Up 20%
6. BBH - Biotech (Options are traded on the BBH)
4 (20%) stocks are on RS Sell signals
6 leading Lg Cap stocks (AMGN, DNA, BGEN, IMNX, PEB, CRA)
19 Biotech, 1 Unknown
Down 104%
Up 15%
7. SMH - SemiConductor
ZERO stocks are on RS Sell signals
MAJORITY are Lg Cap stocks
1 Computer, 2 Electronics, 18 SemiConductors
My conclusions, questions & some trivia:
a. The least volatile are those Holdrs with the most Lg Caps (BDH & IAH)
b. The most volatile are in this order: BHH, IIH, HHH, BBH.
c. From a tax standpoint, only the BDH & IAH may be worth a Buy & Hold strategy.
d. The BBH, IIH, BHH & HHH are certainly NOT Buy & Hold Holdrs
e. So far, the Holdrs with the MOST RS Sell signals had the best returns since bottoming (IIH & BHH). Thus RS Sell signals are irrelevant on Holdrs. Popularity of sector/Holdr is paramount.
f. The Holdrs with the best returns since bottoming happen to contain stks predominately in the Internet sector (IIH & BHH). Perhaps the most severely beaten up Holdr rises first?
g. Duplicated stocks:
CIEN & SCMR are in both the BDH & IAH
EXDS are in both the IIH & HHH
BRCM is in both the BDH & SMH
h. Assets as of 4/17/00:
BBH $1.4 Bil
HHH 794 Mil
BDH 416 Mil
BHH 399 Mil
IAH 302 Mil
IIH Unknown
SMH Unknown
i. Having done this analysis, I look forward to trading (?) the new SemiConductor (SMH) Holdr.
Tig
P.S. Depending on the data feed, there appears to be a discrepancy on the 52 wk High/Lows for the BDH & BBH. The figures contains herein are based on the DWA charts & Big Easy Charting Service. |
