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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread
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To: Bosco who wrote (1322)4/30/2000 9:44:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 30051
 
Bosco, of course, it is tough to give a day by day forecast, but I arrived at my new time table from the following assumptions:

1. There will be a summer rally
2. There is still a tough period ahead before that (particularly in view of the diversion between Dow and Naz)
3. The next few days (one to three) should suffice to get the two in synch.

Thus I have some strength early in the week with a turn down at the latest on Wed. at 2:30 (now how about sticking one's neck out with a day and the time? <VBG>). The Naz might get above 3900 giving a P&F fake head breakout but not going much above that (100 to 250 at most). Then we will start a slow decline (Thur down but not too much, Friday down hard).

The next two weeks after that will see the major decline and a new low on the NAZ (target just under 3000) on the 18. This because the Fed will hike by .5% or at least will make a stance of continuation in the future of tightening. The decline will be so hard that it itself will create the required bottom from which to launch the rally. About two to three weeks after the bottom, or by mid June we ahold have a retest, but much fewer stocks should make new lows, and then we should be on our way to a strong few months "monster rally", which may culminate in a blow up sometime in October. That is about as far as I can see in my aging turnips right now. If the blow up is really big (and we make new highs in both the DOW and marginal new highs in the NAZ), the period after that will be catastrophic to many newborn bulls.

Zeev
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