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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: James Strauss who wrote (48712)	4/30/2000 1:02:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) of 99985

James, That MACD has a very short period -- if you were to use something more conventional, like 12,26,9, it shows a different picture. Even a longer term MACD like 12,26,9 shows an improving picture but frankly I wouldn't bet my finances on it. Have a look at 98 correction and others, MACD turned positive before they carried on down farther. It might be a fine indicator for things in prolonged bottoming phases or in steady trends, but somehow I don't think the lag inherent in such indicators makes them very useful when price volatility is at an all time high and up 80% over two quarters ago. Those are astounding numbers... The reality is that the daily trend is down and reversals are likely. Where, I don't know. But any reversal I see I will short.

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