Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket.

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To: Les H who wrote (1681)	4/30/2000 3:58:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) of 2103

Les; I traded out of the THRGX Friday and started looking at some others.. Was I ever surprised .. Just about every hot fund I looked at has closed to new investors.. I've never seen so many funds that have done this at one time. Sort term it may look good, and we may rally more, but longer term it says to me the market has likely put in it's high for some time to come. ------------------- There is nothing in the past like this to go on except that most funds who closed found out later that the ability to manage the money gave only a temporary advantage and when the market did it's "thing" good enough the original investors just couldn't come up with enough money to buy the dips, or for that matter to pay off the ones who got out so they had to sell stocks. Short term it can help them, long term it don't unless they are very very very Big. ------------------------- In 97 and 98 the market went up really nice and some funds did close..( nothing like the amount taht closed this year ).. But what I noticed about 90% of the ones I saw close back in 97 ; was they soon peaked and most of them have never gotten back to any kind of leadership role.. ---------------- An example ; I was in the OAKSX back in 97 and it was a hot fund when it closed. I got out that Dec of 97 it went up one more time in 98 but then whamy.. look at it now. quote.yahoo.com They just reopened..but it will take time to coax investors back in. That's a picture Of what I think is going to happen to the big majority of these funds taht have closed this year and there are so many funds that closed this year it's going to be pure hell on the market when it happens. --------------------- There are other signs that we may have put in the top.. and after this rally is over a really sharp drop could be coming..it's to soon to call it but the mutual fund leaders are now in a catch22 situation which has a nasty delayed after effect. ------------------- Some of the other signs is how the WWW funds and nut stocks lost their leadership..causing the last down turn.. The market follows the leaders.. New leadership took over ( THE SOX )..now when it starts down look out below.. Jim

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