Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (65511)	4/30/2000 7:31:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Slider, you make some tremendous points. To me the market psychology on the OSX will turn on whether Mr Market puts weight on the looming product shortage story or the OPEC is blowing it story. I hasten to remind you that, while it is true that crude sold off going into the API numbers, it rallied fairly strongly immediately thereafter, indicating no great conviction in the bear case. A lot of tension is building on the OSX tape here. A triangle pattern is clearly forming, which in this case could be seen as a continuation pattern. This is confirmed by MACD buy signals in many many individual stock charts. CAM and BHI are very strong looking charts. Many of the drillers have MACD buys. Since I am now 60 - 40 stock/cash I am biased bullish consistent with my technical tea leaves. Call me a "nervous bull", though <G>. The short term technicals are overbought and seem to agree with the notion you put forth of some kind of sell off near term. Depending on price action during the morning hours I may decide to take a few chips off the table, on a very short term basis. I expect the OSX to drift off to the 112 level. Then comes the acid test. If we hold through API's and rally again, it may be the breakout. The technicals are telling us that time is running out for indecision. BTW, If the market embraces the product shortage scenario the potential for upside is greater than 15% imo. Until the production situation is resolved I see less downside risk. To me the key numbers to watch are not absolute crude levels but refinery run numbers. I'm ok with where I am right now. Sorry Slider, BHI, CAM, SESI and the drillers (all drillers) are starting to look real good on a pb here. Thats were I'm going with my money

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