For instance, it seems that the company he's working for currently has elected to move to WinCE for some of their systems because of inherent DCOM support that they require for synchronization with backend systems. A classic case of an established gorilla leveraging its way into new markets.
Not a good example. WIND provides full support also for DCOM and COM. But, then, none of this really matters. There are all sorts of technical explanations for why Win CE is failing in the market place. Over the last few years, on this thread we discussed problems with MSFT's business model as it applies to the embedded space. But, these technicalities also fail to explain MSFT's problem getting traction in the space.
I think MSFT's arrogance in how it related to the DOJ has killed the company as a serious competitor in the embedded space. All the titans in the industry are borderline monopolies, and the last thing they want is to be too closely associated with a designated monopolist found guilty of monopolizing a market.
Intel, a company that also was accused on antitrust matters, quickly settled the case with minor fan fare. I would be surprised if Intel does anything new with Microsoft, for fear of guilt by association.
I agree with Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer that a breakup of Microsoft will have serious negative consequences for shareholder value. For this reason, I believed the case would settle with behavioral restrictions and regulation. I felt the DOJ would fear the backlash of a company-destroying breakup. (Notice that the recommended breakup is only into two parts, leaving two separate monopolies intact. This implies the DOJ is merely trying to ameliorate the consequences of Microsoft's illegal behavior, again for fear of trashing the company.)
Given the inexcusable situation in which Bill and Steve have found themselves, this is what I recommend you tell your chairman before the weekend is over:
1. Bill needs to spend the rest of the weekend getting over denial.
2. Monday, Bill needs to meet with Joel Klein and offer to break up the company exactly as proposed, but in one hour, not two years.
3. Bill should elect to take the Application/Internet portion of Microsoft.
4. On Tuesday, Bill should acquire WIND, which would not be contested by the DOJ.
5. On Wednesday Bill would be free to be his aggressive self, pursuing the "post desktop" world he claims to be concentrating on-with no concerns about antitrust problems for the next five to ten years.
Allen |
