Mathemegician,
You might have noticed that I wrote a post awhile back suggesting that we not assume the drop in INTF's stock is the result of an overly ambitious report on your part, and especially that it is not the result of pumping and dumping until proven otherwise. I suggested that a post mortem of sorts be done so everyone understands what is and isn't at the core of the fundamentals that didn't meet expectations and what the long-term implications might be not just for the company but for the way we look at companies and stocks here in the folder. It's in that light that I offer some responses to your post.
Those numbers were supplied in early March directly by Bob Nero, CEO of Interface. The fact that they missed their own projections and failed to provide additional guidance to that effect is not any fault of ours. Of course, Bob also told us directly that he would split the stock between 45 and 50 and then did not.
As analysts with access to management that most individual investors do not have, I'd like to see a little bit different take on that. Part of your job is to assess management's credibility and ability to achieve projections. It's certainly not an easy task and sometimes might be entirely impossible. But when estimates are missed and promises not kept, I'd prefer to see comments other than, "It's not our fault." I'd prefer to see comments along the line of, "It was a real disappointment. The recent series of events leaves us no less optimistic about the long-term prospects for the company but does cause us to be more cautious about the short-term expectations in the future." It's a rare opportunity that I'm given the chance to communicate directly with an analyst made even rarer by being able to do it on a public forum, and I appreciate your open-mindedness to considering my suggestions.
I seem to recall that the Gorilla Game is a long-term investment strategy.
I'm sure you can appreciate that I'm disturbed that you would mention the notion of Gorilla Gaming about a company that, according to your own report, states there is no proprietary architecture. Your comment doesn't remove responsibility for people who failed to do their own due diligence, especially in light of a report that even I highly complimented and still stand by that compliment. However, if INTF proves to be the best stock over the next ten years, it won't be because of anything having to do with Gorilla Gaming. The strength of your report relative to this folder was that it showed that INTF by your standards is not engaging in a gorilla game. That you mention the stock now in that context, frankly, blows my mind. Please tell me what I'm missing.
--Mike Buckley |
