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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 694.04+0.7%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST
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To: Casaubon who wrote (48748)4/30/2000 11:02:00 PM
From: StockOperator   of 99985
 
Casaubon,

If I could let me also add my own thoughts on the FED's rate hiking policy and the markets overall. We have all been blown away during the past six months of NAZ action as well as the rest of the avgs inability to respond accordingly. In my previous post I made a comment about the formation of a possible H&S pattern on the DOW or the megaphone pattern that has unfolded. I think it's hard to argue that the FED's action has indeed had a much bigger impact on the older more established companies in the DOW, while many of the techs made their massive runs. That pattern for the DOW is pretty ugly and should weigh heavily on all our decisions on how this 14 month pattern breaks overall. Are we going to roll over here in which case we could very likely place a new low considering that's what this pattern overall would dictate. Or, more importantly lets say we push higher on the DOW and hit this upper trendline at roughly 12,000. Then what? There is going to be incredible resistance at that point. What will our investment climate be like then? Rates, Fed, new administration???? Way too many questions and not enough answers. Let me just say that personally I don't think we need to worry about those answers anyway. The blanks will always get filled. My concern will be how prices handle this upper resistance levels when they get there, and if they fail I will at least I have an idea how this pattern may play out.

So far tech has appeared to be more resilient to rising rates overall. Let's see if it continues.

Regards,

SO
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