Personal Portfolio Survey of G & K Thread: 4/2000
Introduction: We hypothesized that collecting and compiling listings of personal portfolios issued by threadsters would be interesting. In particular, we could determine the influence of thread discussion on individual threadmate investment decisions. We could also match the personalities with actual investments, both in quality and quantity. Given the discussion on G & K, it would be interesting to see how people "vote with their feet".
Methods: Personal portfolios were submitted voluntarily, and at random, between 4/24-4/28, 2000. Individual stock selections were enrolled into an Excel spreadsheet, and weighted according to the data submitted. Cash, mutual funds, and groupings unidentified (ie, "2% biotech basket") were arbitrarily lumped as "other/cash", as they represented potential reserves with which to purchase a gorilla/king tech equity.
Data were analyzed according to Most Widely Held (frequency found in each of the final 117 portfolios) and the Most Heavily Held (the proportion, %, or overall weight given an individual equity by the pooling of all portfolios, a surrogate for the entire thread). Secondarily, thread participants were asked to vote for the ONE Single stock, a "sure thing" that had the best growth/safety profile and would double within the next 12 months.
These results are better than 95% accurate, but not perfect. Stocks that failed to appear in at least 4 portfolios are not listed below. I took a few shortcuts, such as when a portfolio listed a stock without an allocated percentage; I reasoned that barely held stocks would not influence important trends. Limitations of this survey include the potential for bias with less than a 70% sampling of those who participate/lurk vs. those who submitted their personal portfolios. Results will occasionally be compared to those obtained during the first Thread Portfolio Survey, which was conducted in November 1999.
[G & K post # 11398]
Message 12130960
Results:
There were 117 complete portfolios analyzed. Each averaged 11.9 stocks, significantly up from the average of 7.6 stocks per portfolio in 11/99.
The 20 Most Widely Held
2000 1999
QCOM 102 (87%) (96%)
JDSU 88 (75%) (52%)
GMST 85 (73%) (58%)
NTAP 82 (70%) (20%)
SEBL 75 (64%) (13%)
CREE 67 (57%) (18%)
CASH 64 (55%) (32%)
CSCO 63 (54%) (49%)
ELON 38 (33%) (< 1%)
EMC 30 (26%) (34%)
INTC 29 (25%) (21%)
WIND 28 (24%) ( 8%)
ITWO 24 (20%) ( 6%)
MSFT 23 (20%) (21%)
PMCS 18 (15%) ( 7%)
ORCL 17 (14%) ( 4%)
SNDK 17 (14%) ( 3%)
BRCM 17 (14%) ( 8%)
SUNW 16 (14%) (13%)
CMGI 14 (12%) (13%)
Top 20 Most Heavily Held,
for the entire Thread Portfolio (pooled results)
2000 1999
QCOM 24% 44%
JDSU 11% 8.9%
CASH 10% 3.6%
NTAP 6.8% 1.2%
CSCO 6.8% 6.0%
SEBL 5.9% 0.9%
GMST 5.8% 5.7%
CREE 5.0% 1.3%
INTC 2.3% 1.3%
CMGI 2.1% 0.6%
MSFT 1.4% 2.6%
SUN 1.3% 0.8%
WIND 1.2% nil
ELON 1.1% nil
BRCM 1.1% nil
AOL 1.1% 1.3%
PMCS 0.9% nil
ORCL 0.8% nil
EMC 0.7% 2.6%
SNDK 0.7% nil
Most Likely to Double in next 12 Months:
Relative scoring, in order of most popular choices.
QCOM 20
GMST 14
NTAP 14
JDSU 8
CREE 7
SEBL 6
SNDK 5
Honorable mentions: RMBS, SDLI, MSFT, PHCM, AOL, HLIT, NMTX, MUSE, EMC, RFMD, SCMR, AMAT, EXDS, VSEA, GSTRF, GLW, WIND, ITWO, ELON, VTSS, VARL
Discussion/conclusions;
1. The most ASTOUNDING finding is that ELON is the 9th most widely held stock in 4/2000, found in 33% of portfolios; yet it hasn't tornadoed, has no earnings, and was < 1% of holdings in the Survey of 11/99. This indicates the influence of the Project Hunt reports, and their ensuing discussion. By comparison, Gemstar was the 2nd most widely held holding back in 11/99, and was the "surprise" of that draft. All would agree that we were early in the purchase of this gorilla candidate despite the Thread's enthusiasm for GMST then. Time will tell on ELON.
2. NTAP, SEBL, & CREE, have moved up dramatically on the list of the Widely Held and the Most Heavily Held; to a lesser extent, ITWO, WIND, SNDK, & BRCM also moved up.
3. QCOM remains the most widely & heavily held equity. But in the past 6 months, the strength of QCOM in a given portfolio has been cut in half.
4. Participants are heavy into telecommunications, internet-enabling infrastructure, and internet related ventures. This may be partly related to direct and indirect ?Gilder? effects. Participants continue to eschew PC boxmakers. Although there were 117 portfolios, averaging 11.9 holdings, with a potential of 1,392 individual equities, on 5/1,392 were composed of Dell and Compaq.
5. MSFT was widely held by 20% both in 11/99 and in 4/2000, despite the changing judicial environment. Man, what faith!
6. QCOM, GMST & NTAP were thought to be the most likely to double in the next 12 months, yielding the best growth/safety ratio. Dale Russell has kindly established a Doubles Portfolio to watch the results of this part of the Survey.
siliconinvestor.com
7. One of the most significant positions is cash or mutual fund holdings, presumably for buy on the dip opportunities. Cash positions tripled in portfolio weight from 11/99 to 4/2000.
I would like to thank everybody for their generous submissions and the words of support in public and by PM I have received. I'll be signing off for the next couple days to take a break, and will see you at the casino later in the week<g>. I am looking forward to hearing the analyses of these data by the Thread.
Sir Apollo |
