Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: JHR who wrote (65534)	5/1/2000 10:28:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (5) of 95453

Merrill Energy Push... Imho - nearterm upside is 15% max from here for the OSX - I would absolutely be a seller of 10-30% for each 5-7% move up here - sell into any & all strength.Perhaps targeting a 50% cash position; for both an offensive and defensive position. There is only one caveat - if we would happen to get a series of 3-4 weeks in a row of nice API drawdowns and trend back under 300 M boe in storage. Between earnings periods - this is the "deadzone" - especially with the Fed meeting in 2 weeks - take the money & run imho - simply much, much, more risk vs. potential reward here - especially given the possibility (necessity ?) of a .50 basis point rate hike by the Fed which will cause a dramatic total market sellofff imho. I am looking to be 50% cash going into the Fed Meeting - unless Greenspan clearly signals only .25; however I dont think he will signal anything... Longerterm - I think we could see OSX 145-165 by year end - depends on Oil Prices... but, we get to buy virtually everything back cheaper here thru the Fed Meeting's market reaction. That 50% cash position will be both defensive for the blowoff and offensive for the opportunity to load up & leverage the selloff. Still plenty of laggards - at 50% cash you can still participate and if there is not a negative reaction to the Fed; buy a laggard - majors, integrateds, small caps - or PGO CXIPY et al... No one is going to miss the Boom 2000 Train from here thru May 16th.... the Fed Meeting completely reverses the risk vs reward scenario for the Oilpatch in the short term; step out and avoid it...

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