Lucent Technologies (LU) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.830

-0.2%

2:44 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: ftmp who wrote (14608)	5/1/2000 6:05:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) of 21876

ftmp, I am not a long-term believer in JDSU, although I'm sure that near-term performance will be good. Some thoughts: 1. Most equipment makers have at least two sources for every part. Most of JDSU's sales are from parts like lasers, gratings, etc. that are not proprietary technologies. 2. While demand far outstrips supply in most optical parts, leading to both growth and profitability for JDSU, every components shop is adding capacity as fast as they can. I asked about 50 different parts suppliers at the OFC about capacity, and every one said they would at least double capacity by year end. While NT might be doubling equipment sales this year, none of the other big boys is likely to hit that mark. 3. The labor intensive process of making opto-electronics has been a significant barrier to new capacity. New process automation solutions is breaking that bottleneck. 4. Ask NT or LU - they'll tell you parts shortages will ease up in the second half of CY00. This means lower prices and margins for JDSU. 5. This smells like a cyclical industry to me. We're still in the upcycle phase, but get out early and don't get caught on this one.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next