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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop

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To: Voltaire who wrote (17218)	5/2/2000 11:32:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) of 35685

interview of Grant Interest Rate Observer guest on CNBC one of most respected and competent journals on earth main points: - high productivity figures seen in last couple months are exaggerated and distorted high - they are distorted high from Y2K effect - he expects 3.0-3.5% to be proper range of productivity (higher levels have been seen recently) left untouched (frustrated me) was any discussion of exaggerated GDP growth figures also I expect GDP to settle down to 4.0-4.5% over next few months (higher levels have been seen recently) the risk of a serious costly Federal Reserve error is rising every single day evidence is trickling in for a slowing economy evidence is overwhelming of a deadslow European economy USDollar is rising slowly, while Euro is cratering more Fed hikes in USA will strengthen US@ further (Euro down from $1.17 in spring99 to $0.92 now !!!) a stronger US$ would cause two things: - weakening of US exports (which Fed might welcome, slowing economy) - climax burst in foreign investment in US stock market (their equity gains are amplified by currency gains) yet Fed talks of hiking, even entertains notion of 50bpt hike is ATT showing early signals of prolonged death spiral??? / Jim

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