re: the April 24 low:
The huge volume was encouraging. On the other hand, there was large volume on April 3, when the stock gapped down through 100. Since the March high, MSFT has gapped down 4 times, and briefly stabilized after each one, before gapping down again. There really is no way to know if that pattern is finished. It depends on whether the margin money and momentum traders are fully out of the stock, and whether the stock is low enough for value investors. The buy-the-dippers are fickle, they may buy a dip, but sell when the stock sets new lows. They cannot be depended on to put a floor under the stock.
I think the bottom formation on this stock is going to last several months, maybe the rest on this year. And the trading range will be wide. We may go to 90, and then revisit the 60s, a couple of times. You can't call a bottom with just one data point. Once investors become convinced that the bottom is in, a lot of money will pile in, and that in turn will pull the momentum money back in, and the stock will stay above 90. But it's anyone's guess when that happens. |
