SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : For Hedge Fund Analysts and Managers
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Wizard who wrote (24)5/2/2000 12:00:00 PM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) of 499
 
I don't understand this sector as well as CRM yet, but it reminds me enormously of the discussions about Siebel, Clarify and Vantive almost exactly 2 years ago.

Siebel was the market leader and there were noted implementation problems and rumors of replacement at Cisco and Lucent. I even think Siebel removed Cisco from their web site of "100% reference" for a little while. (It's easy to claim 100% customer reference if you only use the referencable clients as references.) (I forget who uncovered that little maneuver.)

My problem is that even if you hear SIGNIFICANT anecdotal evidence of deployment problems, it may mean nothing about long term dominance of the space.

Although Vignette's conservative revenue recognition means they'll NEVER miss a forward quarter, it's valuation (and the valuation of the group) presents enormous risk if guidance goes down. Remember Clarify when they made the March quarter but said they had trouble bringing on sales people? Wasn't that a move from 59 and a fraction to around $7?

I listened to that Goldman call, how mortifying can you get? The sell side stuns me with how little thought or value added analysis is used to build their investment positions.

"We raised Kana and BVSN to recommended list because we have banking relationships with them and IDC says eCRM is a big market."

Could they at least do a little competitive positioning analysis other than

"We expect the demand to be enormous for the market and a rising tide lifts all boats. We also expect consolidation (read 5% transaction fees on overvalued stock based mergers) in the market."

Why does anyone take these pimps seriously?

TD
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News