terraplane, I'm not as concerned about the possibility of MSFT trying to create its own biometrics from scratch as the long shot of them incorporating a SecureSuite in Windows. That is truly a worst case scenario for IDX, since it would represent the loss of a major software market.
If MSFT had 'SecureSuite inside' then all you'd need for a meat and potatoes biometric application would be a fairly dumb reader, which other companies might knock out pretty cheaply. They may need their own algorithms, or Windows might have to incorporate that, too -- from someone other than I/O, who doesn't have it.
My estimate is that if MSFT licensed SecureSuite (or bought I/O to get it), IDX's future market potential would be diminished by at least 35%. I base that on estimating the unaffected wireless side at 50% of the market, access and control at 10%, and the remaining scraps in the desktop market at 5% (i.e., some reader sales and custom software applications, as well as, perhaps, sheltered laptop software sales). I also don't know how a MSFT move in this direction could affect a per-click revenue model elsewhere (accounting for the 'at least' statement above).
However, this is just the nightmare hypothetical. Even in that circumstance, I don't see IDX being wiped out. And today's announcement is net positive for IDX. |
