Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (74)	5/2/2000 6:20:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 276

Mitch, re >At a guess, the correlation is probably not very good, as the economic cycle may not match the implementation cycle. We've had more tops (and bottoms) in the financial end (5? 6? since 1985) than we have wafer size changeovers (not yet 3 complete), and that's a Real Problem to sort out....< If the objective is to decide when to sell [near the cycle top], the declining SEMI orders are as good a trailing indicator as I've seen. But we need a leading indicator - or at least a coincident indicator. I haven't seen one looking at this chart. geocities.com Note the false alarms when ww sales drop 3 months in a row only to continue their uptrend afterwards. Yet some people know when to sell. That's why stock price is down a lot by the time SEMI orders drop. Who are these people? How do they know? Can we infiltrate their ranks? Gottfried

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