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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 479.83+0.3%10:33 AM EST

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To: rudedog who wrote (44193)5/3/2000 11:19:00 AM
From: ToySoldier  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
Rude,

I have to tell you that I had a strong bad feeling that news like yesterday was coming out - but not that dramatic an announcement. The stock has been steadily sliding more significantly than even the corrections we have witnessed in the past month. I personally think that much of the bad news had already leaked into the NOVL stock price prior to the announcement yesterday. In other words, insiders must have known since Brainshare (a few weeks ago) that this announcement was coming and getting out ahead of the drop.

So - AND THIS IS JUST MY OPINION - the yesterday close at $17 was a price that for the most part factored in the bad news. The major drop today we are witnessing is panic selling by the public market that was completely caught off guard by the significance of the numbers.

I would guess that at $11-$12 NOVL is a deal. I would think that some common sense will soon re-enter into the stock and the price will settle back to $15 - $20 in the next few weeks - if not days.

That isnt too bad a short return, but until Novell shows Wall Street that they will clean up there Sales/Marketing teams and until Post-Y2K quarter is behind them, the price will not penetrate $20. I would guess NOVL will enter the $20s later this year as their new DENIM initiative starts showing results.

You have to know that Novell has stopped competing MSFT quite some time ago. They are after the Network Infrastructure market now (i.e. ASPs, Caching, Directory Services plays, etc.). I think you will see the NetWare NOS slide into an underpinning component of Internet Infrastructure products - similar to what their Proxy Caching solution - ICS - is all about.

Rude, these are just my opinions. We will see if the stock rebounds to the levels I predicted.

Toy
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