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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (65667)5/3/2000 3:37:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Agreed, I had thought the Naz would fail before it reached 4000. On that basis, I had thought the Fed might not hike, and said that a major rally in the Naz was the worst thing that could happen to it, as it would ensure a hike. Now that many economic stats have come in stronger than expected, the hike becomes a given. Question is - "Who doesn't know it's coming?" - Nobody, that's who. This will have been one of the most heavily advertised rate hikes in a long time. It will be a surprise to absolutely no one. I expect a big bad rally the day of the hike.

I am in 100% accord with you that it will be THE bottom. It's all over in the middle of May. Negative sentiment indicators are ratcheting up to extreme levels now. The next leg down will probably give 60% bearish reading. This has almost always been consistent with bear market bottoms. ^VIX up over 40 should do it. If the OSX can hold 110 or thereabouts it would confirm it's relative strength and indicate an element of new leadership in the market. I believe new leadership will emerge. Especially in the energy sectors if crude stays +/-25. I am not as sanguine about tech.

Took profits on SDC earlier today; back up to 50- 50%.
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