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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.75+3.6%3:59 PM EST

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To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (103127)5/3/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Harry, re: "higher inflation and interest rates could squeeze them some more. I think that's what is going on today. One could argue that even at the lower PE, the S&P is too high relative to the growth rate of earnings."

I think the jury is out, and it could go either way. There is no doubt that the perceived risk of inflation is higher today than it has been in many years. If it is real, you are right, stocks are over-valued. If, as some believe, the efficiencies of technology continue to provide increased earnings with flat or lower inflation, then stocks may be under-valued. Tomorrow's productivity report will be interesting, even if it is only one data point.

The (inflation) risk vs. the (productivity) reward. Productivity has won for the last ten or so years. Is it time to bet against it?

John
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