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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 34.78

-2.7%

9:45 AM EST

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To: Road Walker who wrote (103128)	5/3/2000 7:42:00 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel	Read Replies (1) of 186894

John Fowler. Re: "Productivity has won for the last ten or so years. Is it time to bet against it?" I genuinely don't think so. When you multiply Andy Bryant's numbers from my previous post (3x on servers annually, 38M PC's) by all the old economy and new economy companies scrambling to keep up and add the internet to that, I believe we will see continued strong profit growth for Intel and productivity gains, as well. (As unemployment drops, capital replaces labor, just as classic economists theorize.) OTOH, rising inflation is real too. But if you believe inflation is a monetary phenomenon, then this means the Fed made an error by pumping too much money into the economy a year or so ago. (Remember when gold got up to $300 per oz?) They are now in the process of correcting that error. The key question re: valuations is, "Will we have a hard or a soft landing?" On a soft landing scenario, I don't think we're far from the bottom. On a hard landing scenario, I think tech stocks are 25%-35% from the bottom (JMHO). I'm voting for a soft one.:) HL

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