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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: CAtechTrader who wrote (17432)5/3/2000 10:33:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
exactly, CATTrader, strong US$ is a builtin dampening mechanism
but it usually ends with a climax resulting in a blowoff stock rally and big damage to foreign economies

either way, we are close to done with rate hikes

a note on contrary nature of how I view economist opinions
economists (whether govt or brokerage or institution) are the most inferior and incompetent statisticians who practice their craft in this country... I have known several of them... unfortunately, predictive tools dont work very well in the 20-dimensional space demanded... they tend to be greatly influenced and biased by political forces, by the direction of today's wind, and by the adulation brought by their perceived importance... they also expect the future to unfold as a continuation of the present (straight line forecasting)... that doesnt work

doesnt change a thing: they suck in their forecasting

the Federal Reserve pathetic record of forecasts was outlined in full glory about one month ago in Barrons with Napoleon Greenspan ignominiously portrayed on the cover

I look to identify the 80-90% majority opinion espoused by economists... right now that opinion is for a 50bpt rate hike, and at least two such hikes to quell this overheated economy

my conclusion: the economy is showing the final effects of Y2K explosive activity
the Fed will hike 25 bpt once more

economists serve as their own contrary indicator
been that way for decades
they sure do corner the TV tubetime though
some networks haul them back on to defend their wrong positions

/ Jim Willie GrassHopperSon
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