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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks
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To: sandintoes who wrote (959)5/4/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) of 2850
 
This volatility post was one that RM reposted over on the
Clown thread. I used to get Stack's letter in the 80's,
he always had some interesting research.

------

Concerning volatility, I ran across an old post, from over a year ago, quoting from a newsletter from Jim Stack.

These are some pretty eye-opening statistics. I can't vouch for them, since I did not read that newsletter and am only reposting, but the numbers appear reasonable:

1) 1968 was the final year of the Go-Go Fund mania of the 1960s, and saw average intraday volatility (calculated as the daily theoretical high minus theoretical low divided by the
average of those same 2 numbers)of 1.71%-the highest in 30 years. Over the next 18 months, the Dow dropped over 35%.

2)The bear market years of '73 and '74 saw intraday volatility peak at a new 40 year high of 2.47%. The S&P 500 lost over 48% during those 2 years.

3) It wasn't until 13 years later that a new peak of 2.62% would be set for the infamous 1987. Even before crash day that year, '87 was on track for the second highest volatility in 50
years.

And today we sit with daily swings of 4% or more on the Naz, and are beginning to accept it as normal.
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