BAU: My valuation for 2.80 to 3.00 takeover price based on a comparison of $/BOED prices paid for recent acquisitions.
But first, much thanks to those who took time to PM or email me with analyst reports and other supporting articles!! I could only use a few items. I didn't use/do any cashflow valuation, not enough time, but maybe the weekend.
Apr. 10 - Unocal/NRK; $724.4mil; 43% oil; $27,862/flowing boe
Apr. 17 - AXL/ULP; $980mil; 45% oil; $36,296/flowing boe
Apr. 17 - Samson/CLX; $140mil; 20% oil; $34,146/flowing boe
Apr. 24 - Seneca/TriLink; $340mil; 95%+ oil; $29,565/flowing
I choose the Unocal/North Rock deal to justify the 2.80/3.00 price. North Rock had the same DEBT/CF profile as BAU. So this is the most logical, suitor will not pay premium for higher debt levels.
The AXL/ULP price was too rich, because of the bidding against HUNT. I doubt BAU will have several suitors, BWTHDIK.
The Seneca/TriLink valuation can be used also, but this gives a higher valuation for BAU.
If anyone is interested, please PM me with an email address and I'll send my spreadsheet to you (virus checked). I'll convert the spreadsheet to Excel Office 95 format. Disclaimer: I am not a financial analyst, I am sharing only my personal information and opinion. Remember you on your own using this information. I take absolutely no responsibility for how you act on the information. :o)
Feedback is appreciated.
NPP: There seems to be much interest in NPP on SI so I might create another spreadsheet on the weekend. Only if I have enough public information. Same valuation model will probably be used.
PS Bye bye intermediates. Canada will soon have integrated, large producers, (few intermediates) and juniors. |
