Hello Aaron,
As you know I am a long term fan of Ultratech and believe the shares will reward us handsomely if we exercise a little patience. I also know Mr. Pang and I have to say he is quite knowledgeable about the industry and a very nice fellow. In fact, I believe he is more knowledgeable than many of the analysts on Wall Street because Mr. Pang has past experience working with an equipment company. If I recall correctly, he helped develop focused ion beam technology when he worked at Varian. This was many years ago but if you or someone else is really interested they could probably ask him about it.
I see the same reasons you do for his downgrade but I think we should add that Wall Street analysts like to develop a little wiggle room in their recommendations. A neutral rating gives Mr. Pang a chance to see if the pace of the recovery, as it pertains to Ultratech, builds some more momentum. If it does, you can bet he will quickly upgrade his earnings estimates and his opinion on the company. BTW, even though things may be slowing in the TFH business we should be happy that it grew while the semiconductor business fell apart. From a strategic point of view, the recent performance of the company is a case study in how to run a diversified technology business. I believe this type of strategic thinking is why Ultratech is such a fine company. Even though I like the diversified structure of their business, it is clear to me that when the semiconductor business takes off, Ultratech will do exceedingly well.
For a long term investor there is no real need to get all excited about these short term squiggles - use them as buying opportunities but plan to be patient. I really think P-GILD will be a hot product and as the device manufacturing community installs these systems Wall Street will embrace Ultratech with open arms. Remember the rule in semiconductor manufacturing is always: "Maximum output, minimum cost". The tools from Ultratech have proven that they can contribute to this goal with a high degree of certainty.
Regards,
Carl
INFRASTRUCTURE
infras.com |
