Carolyn,
I did not watch the interview, but heard it was OK, but not a stellar performance. The thing that strikes me is the importance people give to presentation and not to substance.
The substance is embedded in the altered business model presented by the company. The components to look at are Royalties and special engineering.
It would seem intuitively obvious but people are not paying any attention to the significant growth in this component. If one ignores the annual rise, even the qtr to qtr rise gives a hint of things to come.
The thing I've learned is that most people only look at the surface, few if any actually look into the numbers, disect them, identify a trend, develop probability components associated with them.
I saw the trend immediately and haven't felt the need to fully develop a comprehensive model.
Regardless, I would expect the trend won't be seriously looked at until 2 qtr's hence, and by then, most people will be kicking themselves saying, "Gee it was so obviously positive, I wish I had bought at those levels." |
