tucker, re PC sales -
gartner11.gartnerweb.com
although the following article does not include enterprise sales - it only includes PC sales to both corporate and consumer, please note that IBM is the data outlier in all PC studies. IBM's market position at previous #3, dropping significantly to #8 (due to dropping out of the retail sector) has the effect of making all PC sales numbers look dramatically lower. If you remove IBM's numbers from pact -as most good statisticians would do (review throwing out the single top player and the very bottom player to arrive at a more equitable pattern), you'll arrive at a more equitable worldwide PC growth situtation. Because IBM's PC's sales to the corporate world were off by such a significant margin (interestingly - it seemed to affect both the corporate and consumer for them when they dropped the retail), it distorts the actual growth picture of the other worldwide major players. Y2K also played a significant role in depressing corporate PC sales - but, again, this remains a onetime event - not a lifetime crisis or factor.
As a statistician I wouldn't throw out emachines numbers, however, since their growth does not appear to be a onetime event relative to the growth of the internet.
To arrive at an accurate PC growth picture for the year you must remove those onetime events and companies that skew the growth percentage picture to such an extent that makes all PC growth sales appear to be "out of whack". In other words - you have Dell, HP, CPQ, Apple, and many others growing their business at better than 20% YOY. These four players represent nearly 50% of the world PC market.
Do you base your investment decisions on what the other 50% of the world PC market is doing or on what HP and Dell were able to do?
If you factor in Enterprise sales, along with corporate PC sales, you'll conclude that corporate PC sales, overall, are healthy. Also note that "others" performed at a -3% = other players around the globe. If you look at who these "others" represent you'll notice that most of the "others" are European based. Europe does appear to be coming out of it's Y2K slump - again, a onetime event.
IBM's "growth" picture skewed the performance of the other 80% of the market. Although not allowed to give out a full report; this public information should be sufficient:
Gartner's Dataquest Says Worldwide PC Industry Experienced 15 Percent Growth in First Quarter 2000
Analysts to Provide Outlook for PC Market During Dataquest Predicts Conference
San Jose, Calif., April 24, 2000 - Driven by strong growth in Asia/Pacific, Japan and Latin America, worldwide personal computer shipments grew 15 percent during the first quarter of 2000, according to preliminary statistics by Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). Worldwide PC shipments surpassed 29.9 million units in the first quarter of 2000, up from 26 million units in the first quarter last year.
"The Asia/Pacific region continues to recover economically, and with it, demand for technology is strengthening," said Charles Smulders, principal analyst for Dataquest's Personal Computers Worldwide program. "Growth in Korea was especially strong as a result of government initiatives to drive investment. Japan's growth was also related to these issues coupled with a traditional strength of the first quarter because of the end of the fiscal year. Latin America had a healthy quarter with the consumer segment performing well. Western Europe had a weak commercial market, but it had better performance in the home segment."
HP posted the strongest growth among the top-tier vendors based on the continued success of its Pavilion series. Because of its decision to withdraw its desktop computer line from U.S. retail plus a poor performance in the commercial market, IBM experienced the strongest decline among the top-tier vendors (see Table 1 and Table 2). Dell also saw a slowdown of growth in the quarter, but nevertheless moved closer to threatening Compaq for the No. 1 position in the worldwide market.
The top-tier PC vendors in the United States accounted for 68 percent of PC shipments in the first quarter of 2000, and this consolidation within the market is causing a price increase for PC systems in some segments. Dataquest analysts said the exit of Packard-Bell NEC and IBM from the retail segment is also affecting PC pricing.
eMachines and HP showed the highest growth rate among the top-tier vendors in the United States, with increases of 80 and 74 percent, respectively. At the end of 1999, Dell had moved into the No. 1 position in the United States, and in the first quarter of this year it maintained its lead over Compaq by 0.4 percent.
"In the United States, installed base saturation is becoming an increasingly significant factor in determining overall commercial market growth rates," Mr. Smulders said. "Saturation is forcing vendors to deliver new types of systems to maintain solid growth rates. Key in this planning are the emerging issues of small form factor, such as Compaq's iPAQ and HP's e-Vectra PC."
Mr. Smulders will provide additional analysis on the PC marketplace during the upcoming Gartner's Dataquest Predicts 2000 Conference, to be held May 1-3 at The Westin Santa Clara. Members of the press can register for the conference by contacting Josh Lefkowitz at 212-320-2335, or at jlefkowitz@tsicomm.com. Additional information on the event is available on Gartner's Web site at gartner.com.
These results are preliminary at this time. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Dataquest's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe. More information on this program is available on Dataquest's Web site at dataquest.com.
To subscribe to this program, please call 800-419-DATA, or 408-468-8009. More information about Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at dataquest.com.
Gartner's Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry.
Gartner, the world's premier business technology advisor, was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut. Gartner provides unrivaled thought leadership for more than 9,600 client organizations worldwide. It achieved 1999 revenue of $734 million and has 80 locations worldwide. Gartner's 3,600 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, help clients achieve their business objectives through the intelligent and efficient use of technology. For more information about Gartner's industry-leading research capabilities, services and events, please visit gartner.com. |
