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Hello, thread. Humor me while I rant: I sold 80% of my position in Globalstar today, incurring the greatest losses on any investment I've ever made. Yet I feel somewhat relieved. I'd become too tired of having to interpret spin, generalities, the body language of high executives, the significance of piercing gazes, the pronouncements of technology gurus, the reasons for lack of concrete data on information most critical to determining the progress of this company. My vision had become strained from trying to read between lines. 118K MOUs for all of April? Yet 140 MOU per mobile customer per month? Trends are up. Up from what? It's not quite fair to admonish investors for impatience when their investment declines by 80% over a three month span and there is no concrete information on basic stuff like sales. The service providers, in whom the success of Globalstar is entrusted, seem like they could care less whether Globalstar succeeds. They seem to have moved on, already. This is May 2000, folks. Rollout began in October, right? Pardon me. My mistake. Rollout began in December. ... Oops. My mistake again. Full commercial service began in March. So we're looking at two months of full commercial service and, ah, a couple hundred thousand dollars in revenue for that period? What's the percentage increase in revenue needed to make it to $200 MILLION by year's end? What's going to happen between now (May 2000) and then (a few more months from now) to make it happen? Who's going to deliver? The span from October 1999 to May 2000 equals the span from May 2000 to December 2000. What makes anyone think that execution will miraculously occur during this period sufficiently to provide for continued financing of the enormous debt burden facing this company? Somebody some day is going to make a boatload off those satellites and the system, but I'm doubting more and more that today's equity investors will share in the wealth. |
