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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 7.065

+2.2%

11:45 AM EST

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (4588)	5/6/2000 11:03:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) of 34857

"The history of the handset wars is one in which the baton for leadership gets passed around among Nokia, Ericsson and Motorola every few years." It's a familiar claim. The problem with this piece of conventional wisdom is that it's not true. Motorola's global phone market share has gone from 65% to 16% in a nearly perfect curve. It's mirrored by Nokia's ascent from 5% to 30%. There is no "baton shuffle" expect in the feverish imagination of Motorola apologists. The myth of Motorola's profit margin renessaince is not supported by facts. Two years ago, Nokia and Motorola had equal phone production volumes. Now, Nokia has a 100% volume advantage. The minute we see a slowdown in handset sales growth (and it will come sooner or later, of course), Nokia's margins will dip to 20%. But Motorola's will go underwater. That is the reason Motorola's P/E ratio has fallen so dramtically. The smart money has started to price in expectations of future losses from the consumer division. Mot could compensate by having stronger infrastructure sales - this is wroking well for Ericsson... but apparently Mot isn't capable of doing that. Ericsson has landed three GPRS deals in North America - a humiliating backyard defeat for Motorola. Nokia dominates the Asian GPRS market. Ericsson and Nokia are ahead in Western Europe. The only market where Motorola is showing mobile internet leadership; the former Warsaw Pact countries. Tero

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