Cormac,
What I meant by "more technically competent people" was not referring to traders. Rather, I was referring to the role technology plays in our everyday lives. As the PC, internet, etc. become more a part of our daily lives the boomers and younger generations use the PC constantly. People realize they don't need to pay full service commissions to Merrill, Goldman, etc. So they gravitate toward making their own decisions, using online brokers, direct access and other sexy technology. And the long lasting bull market doesn't hurt either. So what I meant was the incredible increase in computer literate people has likely brought about a larger population of "potential" traders with many thinking the market is like an ATM machine. And most who choose to scalp will likely fail and throw in the towel IMO. So I'd guess that there are actually a higher percentage of incompetent traders now than say 3-4 years ago. Last, as far as style traders might migrate to ... I think swing traders have a higher probability of success long term given the lower costs they should incur (i.e. mainly commissions). Burnout has to be much higher with scalping. I mean would you rather trade 10, 20 ... 50 times a day making teenies and 1/8's or do a couple trades every few days making 1, 2, 5 or more points. In either case a lot depends on ones ability to identify good trades, both long and short.
Dave |
