Carl,
You proclaim to know everything about memory and I'm trying to weigh your inputs against those of the Dataquest analysts Jim Handy and George Iwanyc who beleve that RDRAM will be 75% to 80% of the market and that the price will come down below that SDRAM. I figure if you're an expert, you must have spoken at conferences, written books, be quoted in articles, et cetera. So I did a search of the web on all three of you and came up with the following results (I used the Alltheweb search engine, so if it missed something I'm unaware of, please let me know)...
Jim Handy
1) Wrote "The Cache Memory Book" (http://www.florin.com/ecolint/alumni/authors/handy.html)
The Cache Memory Book introduces systems designers to the concepts behind cache design, leading readers through some of the most intricate protocols used in complex multiprocessor caches.
It also adds that "Jim Handy is a Principal Analyst [note: he's now the Director] for memories in the Dataquest Semiconductor group. He is a frequent lecturer and writer on the subject of cache memory design and is a patent holder in the cache design field."
2) Jim presented at the Dataquest "Megatrends for the Millenium" forum in November 1999 (http://gartner11.gartnerweb.com/public/static/events/scon3/scon3.html)
3) I have access to Dataquest's site through a client, and while I can't post the information, a search of the site returns 189 documents of which he is the author or co-author (the actual number is less since reports get posted more than once under different services). Some titles include:
How to Handle DRAM Market Concentration?
Dataquest's Tactical Memories Newsletter
Dataquest's 1999 Memories Market Share: Let the Good Times Begin
The Semiconductor DQ Monday Report
A Dumping Primer
October 1999 Memory Forecast Telebriefing
Digital Set-Top Box Semiconductor Opportunities
Selling Chips to the Booming Digital Set-Top Box Market
Worldwide Memory Forecast, Fall 1999
DRAM Market Adjusts to Recent Events
4) And here's a list of just some of the pages that reference Jim on the web (search for "Jim Handy and memory" just to clear out any other Jim Handy's):
executivememory.com
mitsubishichips.com
edtn.com
news.cnet.com
eetimes.com ("However, analyst Handy predicted that the embedded DRAM market will also be weak. "There will be fewer and fewer applications for which embedded DRAM will be a cost-effective solution," he said.")
news.cnet.com
eetimes.com
(and the list goes on for 354 links...)
George Iwanyc
1) George is a contributor to Kingston's memory forum web site (http://www.eet.com/news/98/1016news/forum.html)
2) George presented at the Dataquest "Megatrends for the Millennium" forum in November 1999 (http://gartner11.gartnerweb.com/public/static/events/scon3/scon3.html)
3) For George, the Dataquest site returns 136 documents of which he is the author or co-author (same disclaimer). Some titles include:
A Fistful of Semiconductors: Semiconductors in Handheld Computers
1999 Microprocessor Review
Client/Server Virtual Views
Rambus Stock Soars on Lack of Announcement
Dataquest's Tactical Memories Newsletter
Secretive Start-Up Shows Silicon
Intel Experiences a Normal Fourth Quarter
Third-Quarter x86 MPU Shipments: The Start of a Normal Second Half?
Data Processing Semiconductor Application Markets, 1998 to 2003
4) And here's references for George in a variety of articles:
buyersnews.com
seattlep-i.com
eetimes.com
eet.com
eet.com
pc.idg.net
eetimes.com
computer.idg.net
202.106.185.66 (even in the foreign press!)
(and the list goes on with 121 links for George...)
Carl Bilow
You seem to have been a participant in the Prudent Bear contest for Q3 99. Whatever the contest was, it appears you picked Amazon.com as your entry (http://www.prudentbear.com/ssc3q99ent.htm)
That's all I could find for you.
Unless you give me some additional proof that you are as well connected, that you are acknowledged as a leading expert in the field, or that you have as extensive a set of contacts as these gentlemen must have, I'm afraid that I have to give Jim and George much more credibility in this marketplace than you.
Just doing my DD.
Dave |
