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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 114.62

+1.2%

Dec 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (52395)	5/7/2000 9:27:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) of 116815

Rarebird: Some thoughts on long-term gold cycles. Cyclical gold bulls (I am not talking about brief sharp rallies) tend to occur every 6 years. 1978-79, 1985-87, 1993. So we are due NOW for another cyclical gold bull. The bad news is that each cyclical gold bull has peaked at a lower level. $800 in 1979. $500 in 1987. $410 in 1993. These lower peaks seem to reflect corresponding lower peak inflation rates. So if the pattern holds we should get another lower high this time. I estimate $320 with an outside chance of $340-$350. XAU should advance 50-70% from trough to peak. Again well below the previous cyclical bulls, but a very worthwhile gain nonetheless.

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