Hi Jim
just popping here for a quick response...
If the FED raises .50 basis points, i think this market will tank very hard..the street will not think it's over, but instead, "that he'll do it again", once this occurs...
i've said this a zillion times..the only thing that stops this remarkable freight train, is interests rates..period...
i see this entire last 6 weeks or so, as precursor to a mild recession..probably 1st & 2nd quarter of 01...
as for 5 rate hikes, 3 were already assumed to be taken back...he never wanted to raise last year..besides the outside influences, there never was any reason to cut rates...i make the count 2 rate hikes..and all 5 haven't even put a dent in this economy...
so any further heavy handed hikes will cause serious market declines...the street looking out 6-9 months will perceive lower profits, slow consumer spending, and this coming recession...
of course knowing AG as we all do..i doubt he'll allow the slow down to be too elongated...heck he can always cut again, and then we'll be off to the races...
i'm playing hit and run, both long and short now...there has never been a time in my trading life that i have shorted this much...it makes sense, it works, and it's very profitable...
all in all Jim..i have things heading much lower mid to late this month...then??? who the heck knows...and this is only a guess...
all the P&F indicators are positive right now..but from deeply oversold levels..so buy signals came quickly as expected...sell signals now can be generated the same way...
just call me Beara now/perma bull later....
regards..OJ |
