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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 685.66

+0.2%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote ()	5/7/2000 8:03:00 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (1) of 99985

The fact that many traders are confused sure indicates a bear market. I would not count on any rally above 3800 for the NASD. Time to change patterns, bet against the masses that are counting on a NASD rally to 4000 after this week. Where is the liquidity? Money on the sidelines waiting to go. Since when did major players advertise their next move so grandly? Is that how this game is played, advertise your next big move? If everyone is so sure that the election year politics will relax the Fed, then why aren't we seeing the volume up with all rate hikes "priced in?" The chances are strong that before this July the Dow will be around its July 1998 mark of 9750. The NASD is still at 2X its July 1998 level. Earnings in the NASD are not growing at a 50% year/year clip and the Fed is tightening with almost no chance of loosening until the post 1998 bubble liquidity is all gone. This time likely will be different, that seems to be what the market is saying. No big relief rally, we may have just seen it. jmootx

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