<lack of understanding about how the major research houses operate. ... they are typically "sharing" environments -- you give a little, you get a little.>
You are right! You get very little. What else,
besides wishful plans, can be "shared" with a
stranger-"researcher" if everyone knows that the
guy will be telling this to your competition?
Only the bluff - you give the bluff because you
know that you will get in return the same
baloney. It is ridiculous to think that any
real information, especially about any problems,
are ever surfaced at these meetings.
That's why all the "predictions" of these
"researches" are so far from reality.
I can tell you more: those "engineering and
operational people" are usually top-rank company
managers. After a certain decision and internal
commitment has been made, they are interested
in getting their job done, and not where your
competition is stumbling. They want to reach
the company's goals no matter what, and must believe
that all problems can be solved. With their typical
experience from the past, they may not understand
the depth of new problems like "signal
integrity" of high-speed designs. There were no
such problems in their past experience.
Unfortunately, when someone wants to jump
instantly 10 times over the current technology,
from 100 to 800MHz, the past experience just
does not work, it is disconnected and is not
applicable any more, so the people gets disconnected
from reality. They cannot comprehend that some
problems may not be solved within current
cost constraints as they wish and plan.
Finally, your "..suppose the industry was only going
to build a total of 10 SDRAM chips this year"
does not bode well with other part of your
sentiment: "...Simple business reality".
Get real :)
Another one:
"As SDRAM production decreases, prices will rise."
First, it is not for sure that the SDRAM production
will decrease. Second, where have you seen rising
prices on well matured production chips? For example,
prices on FP DRAMs remain about the same for the last
5 years, even if very few are using them.
- Ali
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