Pat is largely right, Gilder largely wrong
One spin:
AVNX is the next big thing in telecommunications.
Another spin:
AVNX is a one-product company, covered by one or two patents, with a very high labor content for that one product. They are so concerned with this issue, they have made agreements with PRC to have it made over there. (Everyone knows how well they respect patents over there)
Fujitsu, by virtue of holding joint assignment to their one key patent, effectively owns them already. (Everyone knows how well Japanese held companies do.)
Cao has a better product design than he had at ETEK, but IMO, not the ultimate design, which will be an active semiconductor chip, and have no labor content.
Given the basic technology, passive optics, the company has low barriers to competition (basically only their patent, and we discussed the dubious value of that above).
Their product may have some success, until someone comes up with a slight tweak to improve it, and leapfrogs their IP. They have no FUNDAMENTAL barriers to competition.
Since they have not qualified their product to Bellcore specifications, sales are on an interim basis...for evaluation by their large customers. In other words, people are buying samples. If it proves to be reliable, which will take at least six months to prove, they may have follow-on orders.
Bottom line: no big technological woopie here folks...definitely NOT the next telespasm...bet short term on this one, if at all...
-Own |
