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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 7.030+1.7%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric L who wrote (4655)5/9/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (5) of 34857
 
"Let us not forget that the US remains the single largest cellular market in the world ..."

Actually - let us forget this right now. European Union had 100% larger number of mobile phone shipments in 1999 than USA. And the EU sales grew about 10 percentage points faster. So if you're considering comparing America to Italy or Germany individually - don't. The correct comparison is the EU. As a humanitarian gesture, I'm doing you a favor here by not including Eastern Europe in Europe.

This Poe guy seems as morbid as his namesake:

"As a result, the U.S. cellular market is plagued by incompatible networks the way Europe used to be. But the worms the agency had set loose generated rich soil for future growth."

So we get a regurgitation of the old argument that about standard fragmentation creating growth. The problem with the argument is the same one it was in 1999, 1998 and 1997. There is no sign of actual, measurable sales or subscriber growth pick-up in America. There is no sign of mobile data revenue becoming a meaningful part of the revenue stream among US operators.

The effects of the standard fragmentation are not fading away. They are just as damaging as ever. The arrival of half a dozen competing mobile internet technologies is not going to improve the situation - without volume sales and a unified customer base of 30-60% of the population, net phones are going to be a hard sell.

Tero

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