It's only likened to catching a falling knife if that is indeed what you are trying to do. That assumes a bad company.
CNXT has fared the worst of all my holdings during the current downdraft, but that has emboldened me to purchase more. I don't see that your post, be it when the price was 60, 50 or 45, has much to do with anything. You named several other companies and the price you'd purchase at, and CNXT is the only one that has come MODERATELY close to that price.
I've made this point before, but it's worth reiterating. 1. the market dipped in the period prior to taxes. It has done that in each of the last 3 years (including 2000). This has tended to trigger margin calls, which worsens the bloodshed. This year happens to have been the worst year, but it was to be expected as people begin to reduce some of their longer term positions (who wouldn't after 3 solid years of gains!).
2. Unemployment and inflation remain at historically low levels, and 401(k) participation at historically high levels. Funds are unusually heavy in cash. They can't stay that way for long.
When you consider point 2, and the factors that have led up to point 1, does it make sense to remain short on the market for long? Even the concept that low unemployment will "spill over" into inflation isn't making sense yet. If it were true, it should have happened a year ago, according to proponents of NAIRU. Therefore, the NAIRU pressure point must be much lower, or we're JUST hitting it. Either way, the Fed has very little work left to do....probably 1/2 more increases (depending on the size of the increase).
By end of summer, the Fed will likely realize that their hikes have done enough of a job that cuts will begin to take place again. I'd be willing to lay dollars to doughnuts that September would be the LATEST date for the market to begin its rally. I'm hesitant to think it would occur sooner, because the Fed is looking to raise rates 1/2 a point. Should they do that, the market will likely take one or two more in the chops....but after that, it's onto the next leg of the bull.
That's a bad scenario, not the worst, but I'd consider it most likely now. I'll continue to add on the way down. |
