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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.44+1.6%Nov 10 4:00 PM EST
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To: Wayners who wrote (49989)5/10/2000 12:55:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Hello Wayne,

The Naz 1% P&F chart's now one of the more interesting of the indexes. 

5060.73   X
5010.63   X O
4961.02   X O
4911.90   X O
4863.26   X O
4815.11   X O
4767.44 O X O
4720.24 O X O
4673.50 O X O
4627.23 O X O
4581.42 O X O X
4536.05 O X O X O
4491.14 O   O X O
4446.68     O X O X
4402.65     O X O X O
4359.06     O   O X O
4315.90         O X O
4273.17         O X O
4230.86         4 X O
4188.97         O X O
4147.50         O X O
4106.43         O X O
4065.77         O X O
4025.52         O X O
3985.66         O X O
3946.20         O X O         5
3907.13         O X O         X O
3868.44         O X O *       X O
3830.14         O X O X *     X O
3792.22         O X O X O *   X O X
3754.67         O X O X O X * X O X O
3717.50         O X O X O X O X O X O   +
3680.69         O   O X O X O X O X O +
3644.25             O X O X O X O X O
3608.17             O X O X O X O + O
3572.44             O X O X O X +   O
3537.07             O X O X O +         +
3502.05             O X O X +         +
3467.38             O X O X   *     +
3433.05             O X O X     * +
3399.06             O X O X     + *
3365.40             O X O     +     *
3332.08             O X     +    
3299.09             O X   +
3266.43             O X +
3234.09             O +
3202.07             +

More often than not, when a chart reaches its second bearish price objective, I look for a bottom to begin forming. When this chart reversed down from 5060 its first bearish price objective was 3754 and its second p/o was 3234!! (Now that was a dead on bullseye.) When it bottomed at 3234 on 4/17/00 it eventually formed a symmetrical triangle that broke up and gave the double top buy signal at 3792 (the column with the 5 on top).

But it became very suspect when that breakout column reversed back down in a column of O's and gave back more than 50% of its run. When that happens there's an 80% chance of a forthcoming sell signal, and sure enough that just happened at 3572. Making the pattern more interesting is the fact that it's a symmetrical triangle breaking to the downside. It's not often that you see two symmetrical triangles joined together with one breaking up and the next down. There's a lot of compression building here.

There's horizontal support at 3537, 3365 and lastly at 3234 before the freefall to 2650. You can see the trendline support at 3467 and 3365. Given both horizontal and trendline support from a bearish support line at 3365, if it passes through that ..

The first bearish price objective is 3299 and the second is 3016.

This chart is depicting far more weakness than strength.

Take care,

Eric
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