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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin
RMBS 96.40+5.4%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: Bilow who wrote (41660)5/10/2000 2:01:00 AM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) of 93625
 
Hi all; Re Semico, Dataquest and accurate predictions for RDRAM production in 2000.

(Context: Dataquest is predicting very large market share for RDRAM, while Semico is predicting an eventual niche market.)

There was some talk about how Dataquest was a more accurate predicter of RDRAM usage than Semico and other memory forecasters. I showed that this was not the case by giving links to Dataquest's forecasts steadily lowering their estimates for 2000 ( #reply-13620094) , as well as links showing Semico hardly having to change theirs. ( #reply-13631596 )

Here's another example of a forecaster (Micron) that thinks that RDRAM will be at best a niche player, again showing that they were accurate in predicting 2000 market share:

Nov 10, 1999 ( #reply-11867935 )
Micron's Memory Buyer's news, 3Q99 (i.e. latest) report, has a road map for memory types. Might make interesting reading for Rambus longs. They're estimating a maximum RDRAM penetration of about 10% next year, and then a slow decline to about 5% by 2003:
micron.com

Now it looks like 7 or 8% will be the correct number. And the longs put off their predictions for the domination of the memory market by another 3 months...

-- Carl
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