Chic Hearne's bold predictions for the stock market for the rest of the year
thread,
Today sucks in the markets, I'm bored at work (actually don't really have anything to do until Monday), so I thought I'd offer up my opinion on the markets for the rest of the year.
The tech bellweathers are in for a rough year 2000. I'm talking stocks here, not companies. I think all of these companies will have a fabulous year. I predict that the following stocks will not pass their all time highs at any time this year:
CSCO, MSFT, INTC, SUNW, ORCL, YHOO, QCOM, (I'm sure there's more I'm forgeting)
Further, I think that CSCO will never ever pass its all time high.
I think it's a lock that all 7 of these companies will not touch thier all time highs.
The only 2 I would question would be SUNW and ORCL. Their respective CEO's are extremely unethical and keep giving the street the impression that everything is A.O.K. Talk about an analyst dream, you don't even have to pump and dump, you can let Ellison and McNeally do the pumping while you dump. Also, you could make a case that both of these companies have the best advertising and marketing in the industry. Anyone close to the computer industry knows both of these companies are in some serious trouble because of terrible strategic blunders.
You've really got to wonder how many hits of crack it took Ellison and his cronies to decide to take on SAP. SAP is huge, I know of about 10-20 installations going on or planned, none using ORCL as the DB. 2 years ago, all would be on ORCL, but the management at ORCL thought they could make thier own ERP software. Last I heard, they had done 2 installations and been sued by both companies for screwing up royally. I'm not sure when the SAP debacle will start to hit ORCL's top and bottom lines, but I think they can make it through the year so they might pass thier all time high.
On to McNeally and his group of cronies. Last week, McNeally gave a speech where he blasted his competitors. Now I ask you this, if your top of the line 64-way E10000 was getting destroyed by every conceivable benchmark possible by a 24-way SP80 which costs $1,000,000 less, would you be spending your time blasting your competitors or would you be getting your house in order? According to Rob Young, CPQ will also be rolling out some SUNW killers next week. IBM has 2 very aggressive upgrades on the way also.
Much like at the INTC headquarters, you can hear the chant get louder from SUNW headquarters, gotta get to the taped out UltraSparcIII, gotta get to the taped out UltraSparcIII...
The only reason I think that SUNW has a chance of passing its all time high is because it takes a long time to cut these deals. I was hearing about the Network Solutions winback of the root A server as long ago as November and it was only announced a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see how many of the other winbacks I've heard about materialize. I talked to some of my boys on the mainsite, and according to them, it can take up to 6 months to hammer out a multi-million dollar contract.
The roots of failure are set in at both SUNW and ORCL, the million dollar question is when will it start to hit thier top and bottom lines? Both companies should be fine for year 2000, but beyond then watch out. The other 5 companies probobly won't even come close to their all time highs for the rest of 2000.
Just chic hearne's 2 cents...
chic
BTW- I think Ellison and McNeally are the top 2 CEO's of the 1990's (minus the last few years that they've planted the seeds for failure) |
