Well boys - Cash was & is King with Blood in the Streets...
Hope many have been steadilly taking profits of late and have some cash.It really wans't too difficult to see a top here imo.
For those with cash - opportunity knocks.
What never ceases to amaze me; is the scenario that just unfolded.
Everyone pounded the table that the market had allready priced in a .50 bp Fed Hike here (remember that Bullsky ?(VBG); but yet; after it IS universally acknowledged - we sell off into the final days....?
What were people thinking ?
The OSX, E&P's - bulletproof ? - WRONG.
While their fundamentals are super; they are the major source of profit taking currency...
This was so clearly time to take profits and to be heavilly into cash as both an offensive and a defensive weapon.
Lots of buys out there shortly... the key is to average into tech here with wide gaps; no reason to chase 5% moves here... Nasdq 3000-3250 looks like a bottom support buy imo.
"Q" your grouping of VTSS into that "pretender .com" mania group reminds me of your original comments on UPR on their debt and their poor earnings etc...(VBG) - you'll learn and/or jump on the bandwagon there too I'd imagine... and now you like "QCOM" in the same breath ? - ROFLMAO... nothing like being consistant to one's mantra now is there ? - good ole' "Q"...somethings never change.
VTSS is back to pre-Nasdq Rally price levels - as oppossed to peer PMCS for example. I shorted PMCS into the momenteum down today - to hedge my long entry into VTSS. I space my buys in averaging into tech here; with VTSS in today at $48, will sit at 44 and 40. I have no problem sitting LT on VTSS in the $40's - it's an immediate 50%+ upside screamer on "any" post Fed Hike Rally - which imho we will see.
Opps to buy the driller/service & E&P leaders here cheaper too imo...
Gold Stocks aren't looking like a bad play so far - have 10% there...if things get crazy.
Anyone who writes off Tech here is missing a premier opportunity both short & longterm imo.Buying the dominant players in the strongest niche's is the key; stocks like NTAP RFMD FDRY JNPR WIND will offer re-entries at reasonable prices given their future growth that may not be seen again... semi's like VTSS are great trading opps here into a Naz 3000-3250 bottom.
There will be lots of confidence building commentary post the Fed Hike. This phenomena is partially the aftermath of adding historic liquidity due to Y2K fears. The Fed has to stop aggressive growth here - but, as it's prior hikes are not even "into the system" yet; it has to be carefull. Corporate earnings are still incredibly strong and that story can NOT be ignored. Once bubblevision trots out Joe Battapaglia & Co - we'll be off to the races again ...
We really just may hit the perfect balance here shortly imo.
I have connections in the Real Estate Title & Mortgage/Real Estate sector - there is a huge, huge freefall in Middle America in Mortgage refinances which was a substantial hidden catalyst to inflation; as millions of Americans pulled out tons of cash to add room additions, buy cars, invest in the market etc - that is OVER ! Home Sales are STOPPING in their tracks. There are some Real Estate Offices, Title & Mortgage Companies on the frontlines that are scared $hitless here - the demand has evaporated... and it AINT coming back.... Greenspan has done the job here. This .50 imo may NOT be followed by a June hike at all; as we WILL see the effects of the prior hikes in the coming future economic indicator reports. Things may still be hot in select markets - but, in Middle America - the Fed's job has been done and they may have even "over-done" it.
Anyone who does a "Peter Lynch style" realworld reality check on the frontlines of Middle America's Auto Dealerships, Real Estate, Mortgate & Title Company Offices will see that spending is dramatically declining.
People got hit hard in 401K accts - they no longer have the ability to refi their mortages on favorable terms to pull out cash etc. Auto's are slowly dramatically.... there is fear of $2 gas, fear of the market, fears of corporate cutbacks in response to Fed hikes etc.
We just may see Dow 11,500-12,000; Nasdq 4500-5000 and OSX 150ish by year end if this soft landing works and it appears to be working imo... Naz 3000 to 4500 will be a nice, nice move - Tech about to be really attractive here imo.
"Q" if you like PE's so much - Financials are the place to be - they can take much more than the Fed is willing to dish out and still pay 5% dividends and print money & earnings indicative of PE's of 6-8. Post the Big Fed Hike here - Those will be great LT plays - the entire sector has 50%+ near certain upside; with only a major recession stopping that from happening. GSB SVRN WM lots of opps there... The Street has totally disconnected from the reality of the earnings ability of Financials in even a rising rate environment - we are in the sweetspot of buying here shortly.
6 days & counting to Fed-Hike o'rama.... I'd be a buyer here into weakness in tech !
If I've got this right - I'm going to have my cake & eat it too via -
1. Taking Oilpatch profits of late.
2. Shorting/Trading Tech presently - then flipping long & leveraging a Naz 3000-3250ish bottom that is about to form.
3. Selling the leveraged Naz bounce that will come.
4. Jumping to the Financials immediately with the Naz Bounce profits - but, maintaing a core LT Tech position.
5. Re-buying the Oilpatch between Q-1 - Q-2 earnings periods.
Riding it all to Dow 11,500; Naz 4500 & OSX 150 thru year end...
... one has to have a plan; that's mine & we shall see.
PS - there is so much short & put action in Tech that a post Fed bounce rally is an absolute complete and total given imo. But , once again; the key will be on when to sell & take profits off of that bounce as well. |
