Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65968)	5/10/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) of 95453

Jim - re: the Fed Hike; My point was not "when" the selloff was going to occur; but that a blow off "WAS" coming...and that a .50 bp hike CERTAINLY was NOT priced into the market allready. It seemed that the mindset was that the Market had allready priced that .50 bp hike into the market - ie: meaning the hike was allready in prices here of late - with today's market action its clear they were not. The Wall St pundits were among those beating this drum the strongest; it amazed me..."whistling by the graveyard and hoping others would follow imho". It wasn't a matter of if people fled, prior to or, after the Hike; the point was that they would flee - and they just did... Imo, profit taking into both the NAZ bounce and the Oilpatch Rally and being in cash for both its defensive and more importantly its offensive capabilities was a no-brainer; as the selloff was inevitable. Lots of opps to skip like a rock across water here for trading imo - take Oilpatch profits, short tech - cover & go long the coming tech bounce,move the profits to financials - leverage the oilpatch 2H 2000 breakout... PS "Q" your simplistic comments of Financials having credit card & speculative loan exposure is inane. There are numerous Financials with virtually inconsequential credit card, or speculative loan exposure. I hope we are spared from further "Pinocchio-esque" bravado of who can pull the threads chain the furthest by being on the most margin... the math of the volatility during the last 3-4 months simply did not jive with some of the "margin bravado Bull$hit" spewed on this thread the last couple of mos. The "play" on S&L's for example is similar to what we had in the E&P's when the market just disconnected from reality. Many small bank & S&L's will and can grow earnings into another 1 1/2% hike if seen. They are paying 5% dividends , near historic low valuation multiples and and do not have the same old paradigm exposure to rising rates that they once did. Those dissing "financials" here are dissing their earnings reality - just like they did with $2.50+ NG - $22+ crude when we saw $8 UPR & XTO - it is a "when" and not an "if" play for the financials and their 50%+ upside. Financials will be a story sector in 2001 - bank on it. Absolute, free money - waltzes sectorwide to 50% upside over the next 12-15 mos. My favorite risk vs reward play as of today is FTHL - making it my largest holding into any & all further weakness. But, it's non-marginable fwiw - so "margin junkies" can't play it...(VBG). This is the easiest 50% upside play with low risk from todays prices imo. They've recently gotten the financing they need to complete the buildout of one of the World's most significant broadband/cable-telcom assets in the world. Perhaps the cheapest Technology asset in existance... a much, much cheaper play than GBLX LVLT WCOM & that niche is the smartest risk vs. reward value play on tech that I see. VYTL another great broadband/telcom/cable play with super Euro exposure...SSB with nice analyst commentary on both. Hoping I get one more chance to buy FLC sub $20 - will load with calls if I do... FLC & PGO stand out so superior to the bulk of the "names" in the Oilpatch that I presently have 65% of my Oilpatch funds in these two names....and see little reason to add much else here. The other 35% in KMG COC MRO AHC THX NEV BSNX for O&G upside - all represent unappreciated value & earnings here. Imo, watch the pundits come out and spread the "Bear Market questions" here now - they want to shake out the masses; so they can load up at a lower risk basis - post the Fed's COMMENTARY - which is more important lonterm; that the hike itself... The FED can NOT keep raising rates - CAN NOT. They've acknowleged that their prior hikes are not quite even "into the system" as yet - but, .25 death by 1000 nick's" is not getting it done. We just may see one last .50bp hike here and that's all folks... Reality in Middle America & the Fear put in the avg consumer - assure's the work is done imo.... worst case scenario - another .25 end of summer...

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