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Technology Stocks : Cisco

CSCO 72.10

+1.4%

Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Curtis E. Bemis who wrote (23)	5/10/2000 3:41:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) of 405

OT Curtis, Here is another datapoint for the state of the market perception.. schaeffersresearch.com Update On The Consensus Index Of Bullish Market Opinion 5/10/2000 11:30:51 AM In a Market Observation that appeared yesterday, we discussed the Index of Bullish Market Opinion that is published on a weekly basis by Consensus Inc. of Kansas City. The survey, which polls futures traders, has served as a strong contrarian indicator in the past. A large percentage of bulls will tend to occur when the public is already fully invested in the market. As a result, the sideline cash needed to push the market higher may be somewhat depleted. Conversely, when the percentage of bulls is at historically low levels, it will often correspond with a market in which the public is under-invested. In these instances, a greater amount of sideline cash is available to ultimately push the market higher. This morning, the most recent percentage of bullish opinion survey was released. The percent of bulls has now fallen to 21 percent. Last week, the figure stood at 31 percent. Today's reading of 21 percent is the lowest result since the 20-percent reading on October 15 (see the first chart below). That reading corresponded with a short-term market bottom and a successful test of the 10-month moving average for the S&P 100 Index (OEX - 747.48) (see the second chart below). The only move below the 20 level in the last six years came in August 1998 in the middle of the international financial panic. This signal also effectively marked a stock-market bottom at that time, as the OEX was able to find support at its 20-month moving average.

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