Is INTS a good buy at current prices? Probably, but I don't know for sure.
There is a lot of embedded systems business out there, and INTS will get some. Is that enough to make the company a good buy? I don't know.
What would you rather have, a great company at a fair price (WIND), or a fair company at a great price (INTS)? The answer depends on how conservative you are as an investor, or whether you know something the rest of us don't.
Personally, I am trying to be more disciplined in all the investments I make. If I see any significant downside possibility, I pass on the investment, even though there is almost always an interesting upside potential. On the one hand, INTS has a tremendous upside possibility. On the other, it might sink into oblivion as it pursues a misguided strategy and disappoints on revenues and costs.
Sometimes I see companies explode to the upside that I resisted investing in by being risk-averse. For example, last fall a friend suggested buying CREAF at around $10 or $11. It steadily dropped from there to about $3, and I still didn't buy because I couldn't guarantee the upside. Today, six months later, it sells for $18. I'm happy for CREAF, but I just couldn't see it, so I didn't invest.
One of the things I did in NYC was attend an annual meeting of a company new in the high-end RAID business. I could buy a block of the shares inexpensively. Should I?
On the positive side, the management is experienced and capable, and has explicit goals consistent with improving shareholder value. On the negative side, RAID technology is advancing rapidly, and I wonder if they have the talent and resources to stay abreast of the developments. In particular, I worry that consumer-level RAID products will undercut the companies products, putting constant pressure on margins. What would you do?
Allen |
