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On market manipulation conspiracy: Am very wary of such theories, and all the more so on any attempt to trade on them. IMO, they sometimes may seem attractive because they seem to promise one big explanation for the results of highly complex interactions involving many thousands (if not millions or billions) of competing groups and individuals. Markets distill the results of these interactions into prices, and all major price movements, just like important psychological or historical events, are overdetermined, and therefore susceptible to multiple parallel explanations. Chart patterns have been fitting together like magic jigsaw puzzles for hundreds if not thousands of years, in every kind of market. Of course, there's nothing magic or mysterious at all about price levels and the fairly simple reasons that people gravitate toward and re-visit them. I do not believe that any one agency, even a powerful wealthy conspiracy, can achieve more than a marginal, transitory affect on market movement, and, even then, I believe that chaos and unintended consequences can be counted on to foil any attempts to pre-determine the larger course of events. |
