Here's how I see this desktop situation playing out:
The BioAPI group will be doing everything it can to prevent the BAPI deal from going through. If they succeed, great.
If they don't succeed, do their efforts prevent Microsoft from freezing the PC desktop market in the meantime? If they succeed in maintaining demand, great. Any sales and deployment of BioAPI alliance members -- especially to the US government -- will damage MSFT's and I/O's ability to control this market. The argument that IDX and BioAPI vendors will make is this: You can buy BioLogon or its equivalents for some extra money in return for (a) deploying now (and begin saving costs now) instead of waiting for the next Microsoft O/S release, whenever that will be; and (b) this software will be able to run on Linux and UNIX as well as Windows. Buying a BioAPI product will help you from being locked into Windows and let you run biometrics on your system if it already is, or will be, running on a non-MSFT O/S. (I wonder what the projected share of the desktop market MSFT is supposed to have in 2002 or 2003?*) Assumptions: The DFR-300s get rolling, BioAPI meets or beats its development timetable, the BioLogon application can override the MSFT "default" SecureSuite mode, and the US government will not wait for Microsoft before deploying (and carrying contractors with it).
If Microsoft freezes the desktop market for BioAPI despite the Consortium's efforts, IDX meanwhile will make itself BAPI-compliant (as they've already announced). That frees IDX to sell algorithms, specialized applications, and hardware into the desktop market more easily than if MSFT didn't have an API. Assumption: IDX can offer integrated and pilot-tested solutions well before other BAPI-compliant vendors can develop competitive readers and proven software, and potential Asian low cost hardware vendors will take some time to reach the market.
None of Microsoft's moves should affect IDX in wireless or in access and control, and the form factor on the DFR 300s (and BioLogon remote access capabilities) should give IDX a significant hardware edge in laptops.
Finally, I think IDX is playing its PR pretty well. They've let others slam MSFT, while they put out a restrained release last Monday saying they would support whatever came out. At this point they are publicly positioned to fight or cooperate.
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*According to May 9 ZD Net News, "Microsoft also continues to work on Whistler, its upgrade to Windows 2000, which it is hoping to ship some time in 2001. At the Windows Hardware Engineering Conference (WinHEC) in April, Microsoft officials put an alpha version of Whistler through its paces for conference attendees. At that time, Microsoft officials characterized Whistler as a fairly minor upgrade to Windows 2000." In Microsoft release years, that means not before 2002. |
